Neuesten Einschätzungen zufolge ist Waymo bereits jetzt $175 Milliarden wert, wohl gemerkt vor dem kommerziellen Start.
Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s multibillion-dollar self-driving vehicle bet hasn’t yet launched commercial operations but that’s not stopping Morgan Stanley from predicting massive potential for the company that’s emerged as the leader in the autonomous tech race.
A year after his initial estimate that Waymo was likely a $75 billion startup, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas raised it to a staggering $175 billion, citing greater revenue potential from passenger ride services and licensing of its tech. The biggest source of future revenue, however, is likely to come from autonomous trucking and delivery services, which Jonas thinks could generate as much as $90 billion.
Waymo’s pilot program in Atlanta, in which the company is testing a small fleet of Peterbilt semi-trucks loaded with its sensors, software and computers to handle deliveries for Google data centers, points to a future in which it could “address roughly 80% of the ~$3.1trln global (~$900bn US) freight transportation market and evolve into a logistics player for long-haul and last-mile delivery,” Jonas wrote in an August 7 research note.
“Autonomous vehicles should eventually enable faster and cheaper last mile delivery, improving the customer experience by potentially enabling <1 hour delivery from local stores to the customers' homes rather than from a centralized warehouse to the customer, while narrowing the margin gap between store and eCommerce sales,” Jonas said. As a result, “Waymo could help traditional retailers better compete (from a cost and service perspective) against Amazon.” The upbeat outlook comes as Waymo prepares to start a revenue-generating robo-taxi service in the Phoenix area this year, allowing residents to hail one of its Chrysler Pacifica minivans using a company-designed app to ferry them to work, school, the airport or to run errands. Some 400 early riders have been using the service for free this year, increasingly with no human safety driver at the wheel, but Waymo intends to begin charging for those rides at some point in 2018.