Die verlinkte Studie zeichnet ein düsteres Bild für den klassischen Fahrzeugvertrieb. Autonomes Fahren wird hier als massiver Disruptor tätig sein!
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n influx of self-driving cars will trigger growth in ride-sharing services such as Uber and Lyft, causing new-car sales to plummet by 2030, according to a new report by financial services company Credit Suisse.
"Our global automotive production chain model forecasts global car production flatlining in 2030 with rising production in developing markets offset by declines in developed markets," the report said.
The lower cost of ride-sharing compared to car ownership will drive the decline in new-car sales, according to the report. Analysts predicted that, in the coming decades, fleets of autonomous vehicles owned by companies like Uber will make up the majority of cars on the roads of developed countries.
Credit Suisse isn't the first to forecast a future dominated by shared autonomous cars. The combination of autonomous driving and ride sharing is widely expected to have a bigger impact than either trend could have had individually. Eliminating the need to pay human drivers could dramatically increase the profitability of ride-sharing services. Autonomous cars will also be able to stay on the road more or less continuously, meaning they can earn more money and customers will have an easier time finding a ride.
But autonomous ride sharing won't completely eliminate private-car ownership, Credit Suisse said. It found that a person traveling 5,000 miles a year would actually spend less money owning a car than they would by using a combination of ride-sharing services for short trips and renting a car for long trips. Car buyers will also be able to get good deals, as Credit Suisse expects the rise of self-driving cars to have a negative impact on used-car prices.