Wie kann der Automobilsektor auch in Zukunft profitabel sein? Spannender Artikel vom World Economic Forum.
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To unlock the promised value of mobility technology, industry players will need to invest more than $900 billion in new growth areas by 2030 and more than $2.4 trillion by 2035. Key areas for investment include: AV technology, battery production facilities, charging infrastructure and self-driving taxi fleets.
OEMs face the double challenge of needing to make their share of the investments in growth areas at the same time that margins in their core business are declining. Our analysis found that OEMs are likely to see their return on sales, now close to 7%, drop by approximately 1% by 2025. Among the factors driving the contraction will be the lower profitability of BEVs and hybrid vehicles and the cost of compliance with emission regulations. Over the same period, the ratio of capital expenditures to revenue will climb by around 1% as OEMs work to fund future growth areas.
A transformed market structure
As a result of these developments, OEMs will find their market position challenged on multiple fronts over the next 15 years. Suppliers, especially makers of AV and BEV components, will gain greater influence. Ride-hailing companies and tech giants will battle to dominate the customer interface and data flows. Start-ups, including digital natives, will enter the race to offer vehicle-centered services. And cities may emerge as the gatekeepers to local services.
Likely winners will be those market participants that are well-positioned in future growth areas: AV technology providers (including electronics and software suppliers), battery makers, and on-demand platform providers and operators. Potential losers could include incumbent suppliers that focus on components for ICE vehicles; incumbent OEMs without a strong position in new business models or in AV or BEV technology; and dealerships and maintenance shops that cannot expand their service offerings.