Spannender Artikel über das zukünftige Function on Demand / Abonnement-Geschäftsmodell bei Tesla.
Morgan Stanley believes that only 27% of Tesla buyers are currently buying the $7,000 Full Self-Driving package and that a subscription service, which is expected to cost more than $100 per month, would expand the take rate of the package. The firm believes that it could have a major impact on Tesla’s business: “In speaking with our IT hardware and internet analysts, it became clear that the market’s appreciation of an emerging business or revenue stream can inflect when we approach 15 or 20% of company revenue and 25 to 30% of profit. In the case of Tesla, our model suggests that Autopilot/full self-driving (FSD) revenue can reach only 6% of sales by 2025, but nearly 25% of gross profit. We believe this would be extremely meaningful for a company whose core business is automotive sales.” Morgan Stanley doesn’t currently account for this potential change in its price target for TSLA, but it did explore how a 400bps increase in auto gross margin due to FSD could impact the share price: “If we take our estimated 2025E gross profit of ~$24BN, that implies an estimated EBITDA of $18.2BN. At an estimated 0.5x premium to the current MSe 2025E EV/EBITDA, that would imply a share price of roughly $1,150, just below our current bull case valuation of $1,200. To arrive at higher per share values, one would have to assume either higher attach rates, higher FSD prices, a higher multiple, or some combination of the three. For example if we shift the timeline of our “blue sky” scenario up 5 years to 2025 at a 17x EV/EBITDA multiple, we arrive at a roughly $2,000 per share value.”