Shared Mobility: Wird autonomes Ridehailing profitabler als gedacht?


ARK Invest, eine der interessantesten Investment-Firmen, hat ihre Prognose für autonomes Ridehailing deutlich erhöht. Absolut lesenswert und wie immer eine spannende Lektüre!

ARK estimated that consumers will be able to travel on autonomous ridehailing platforms for just $0.25 per mile when they reach scale in 2024, or less than half the cost of driving a personal car and roughly one tenth the cost of a taxi. With these compelling economics driving customer adoption, ARK’s research previously concluded that companies owning and operating the autonomous technology stacks – like Waymo and Tesla – could command a take-rate of 20-30% of revenues, similar to that for Uber and Lyft, and that investors should be willing to pay $2 trillion today for the winning platforms.1
In a less competitive marketplace, we believe robotaxis ultimately could price as high as $0.50 per mile and still offer a 30% discount to personal car ownership. Enjoying natural geographic monopolies, autonomous ridehailing companies could command much higher take-rates, up to 60%, as they transport passengers more conveniently and safely than human-driven taxis. At $0.50 per mile, the winners would generate a net present value of $12 trillion in cash flows, rendering ARK’s previous estimates quite conservative…

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